Gregs FAVORITE Over/Unders
New England Patriots - Under 4.5 wins
There is no other way to say it other than this team is just bad. I’m willing to give Mayo a chance at head coach, but it just feels like a defensive coach and a rookie QB, or maybe another QB, might not be the best formula for success (stopping thinking CJ Stroud last year. It’s an anomaly). There’s a chance they could have the worse receiving core in the league and that’s before any injuries occur.
Now to the schedule. The Patriots open up with three of four on the road against the following quarterbacks. Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy. Then if that doesn’t seem like a gauntlet to start they follow that up with Tua, Stroud, Lawrence, and Rodgers again. The schedule then closes with a trip Arizona and Buffalo, then home against the Chargers and Bills again
Throw in what seems like a noisy off-season and rough start to training camp and I just can’t find five wins for this team.
Las Vegas Raiders - Under 6.5 wins
When the line came out I was willing to give the Raiders a chance this season. I like the story of Antonio Pierce getting the boys to have fun again last year. However, having fun doesn’t equal wins in the NFL. The Netflix documentary “Receiver” really showed the struggles of Davante Adams, now he is a year older, and going into a season not knowing who his quarterback is between Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew.
Both didn’t play bad last year, but with Minshew I’m fully convinced that it was the mind of Shane Steichen that allowed the Colts to get the best version of “Minshew Mania.” With O’Connell he now has to go into the season with defenses knowing his tendencies and no Josh Jacobs to lean on in the backfield.
I think this will team will have it’s best chance to get wins from weeks three through six, with a slate of Carolina, Cleveland, Denver, and Pittsburgh with three of those four being in Sin City. Will Adams and Crosby even be on this team past the trade deadline?
Minnesota Vikings - Over 6.5 wins
I know what you’re thinking. “McCarthy? Really? JJ?” Hear me out. I don’t necessarily believe in JJ McCarthy right now, but what I do believe in is everyone around him. Justin Jefferson. Aaron Jones. Christian Darrisaw. TJ Hockenson. Thats all before we get to offensive guru in head coach Kevin O’Connell.
This team won seven games last year with a revolving door at quarterback and a constantly injured Justin Jefferson. The NFL also gave them a very favorable road schedule. With games against the Giants, Rams, Jaguars, Titans, and Seahawks. Only one of those teams made the playoffs last year.
In my opinion they will be competing for second place in the division, and in doing so they will look up and have more than seven wins when the final whistle blows at the end of 2024.
Dallas Cowboys - Under 10.5 wins
Has there been a team in the league that has had a louder off-season than the Dallas Cowboys? Jerry Jones has been next level this summer and man is it headline material. Anything from contracts, personal life, and politics he seems to have covered it all.
Now to the actual team. Injuries have already occurred in training camp and the contracts of CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, and Micah Parsons have dominated talk shows for the wrong reasons. Now I do think some of those deals will get done, but that doesn’t make up for what has been lost. History has shown that Cowboys cannot be Dak dependent and right now that’s exactly what this team is shaping up to be.
Then on top of all that noise, throw in a first place schedule. My eyes immediately go to the stretch of the schedule starting in week six through week eleven. Which goes Detroit, bye, at 49ers, at Falcons, Eagles, and Texans respectively. I just don’t think they have enough wins before and after that stretch to get to eleven wins.
