Dungeons, Dragons, & Football

Dungeons and Dragons and Football

In the classic role-playing game Dungeons and Dragons, every character has an alignment, which tells us things about how the character acts and what their values are.  (Or at least so I’m told – my D&D knowledge is pretty much limited to Stranger Things & that Chris Pine movie from a couple years back.  Lowkey great movie.)  But every character exists along 2 axes – on the first, they are either good, neutral, or evil.  That isn’t too hard.  On the other, they are lawful, neutral, or chaotic – this points to whether they have a strong, highly-defined code that they live by (think Batman), make it all up in the moment (think Joker), or exist somewhere in between.

I’m going to repurpose these alignments today and talk about all 32 NFL teams from these point of views.  I’ll keep the same terms, but redefine each category a little to clarify what we mean & what we’re looking for.

Lawful – Chaotic refers to how clear of a sense we have at this point about what the team is & wants to be.  Do they have a very pronounced identity on offense or defense?  Are there relatively few questions about their best players?  Will they probably be more or less exactly what everyone thinks they are?  This can be exciting and interesting (we know that a lot of the Shanahan-tree guys will roll out fun, effective offenses) or boring and dull (oh hello Derek Carr), but whatever it is seems highly predictable, at least relative to the variability of the NFL.  On the other side of things, chaotic means that there is a high degree of uncertainty about a team.  This is more focused on the on-field product, but there’s a place for off-field factors to creep into this as well.  Is there a real sense of uncertainty about exactly what this team will look like in 2024, in play style, personnel, or trajectory?  And neutral is obviously somewhere in the middle.

Good – Evil refers to how interested I am in this team.  How fun do they seem to watch?  How interested am I in what’s going on with their team?  If they were on TV on a random Sunday afternoon, how likely am I to keep watching?

Good means that the team is pretty compelling.  This does not necessarily mean that they are a successful or talented team, but there will be some correlation for sure, because who wants to watch a 2-15 team?  Not most people.  Evil means that the team is not very compelling.  Maybe they’re talented but boring, maybe they’re just bad, but whatever they are, I’m not all that interested.  And neutral is obviously somewhere in the middle.

LAWFUL GOOD – We know who they are, & it seems fun!

These teams turn out to all be playoff-caliber teams… and while that wasn’t a requirement, it makes sense, because they have a defined identity that we want to watch.

Baltimore Ravens – Mike MacDonald out on defense plus Derrick Henry in on offense means that there are some questions worth considering.  But the organizational infrastructure is very strong, Lamar pretty much is who he is (which is 95% a good thing), and the biggest stars all return on both sides of the ball.

Cincinnati Bengals – Come back in 2025 and we’ll talk about the return or departure of Tee Higgins.  But he’s here for now, so as long as Joe Burrow is healthy enough to sling it, the Bengals are toward the top of the loaded AFC mix.

Detroit Lions – Biting kneecaps, stockpiling OL talent, contending for a Super Bowl.  What a time to be a Lions fan!  But they’ve moved a little from “Cinderella story” to “just plain a contender”.

Green Bay Packers – There is a question about exactly who Jordan Love can become and exactly how far he can take them.  We’re very clearly in the Love era though, with a strong and established head coach to help guide it.

Los Angeles Rams – Scheme mastermind Sean McVay doing his wizardry with quality offensive talent at his disposal, though they’ll miss defensive monster Aaron Donald on the other side of the ball.  Is this a deep playoff run team?

San Francisco 49ers – Scheme mastermind Kyle Shanahan doing his wizardry with quality offensive talent at his disposal, and they have defensive monster Fred Warner on the other side of the ball.  Is this a title team?

LAWFUL NEUTRAL – I pretty much know what I’m getting myself into, but it’s interesting enough that I’ll watch some of it.

Kansas City Chiefs – It’s been a noisy offseason for KC, and in some ways the Mahomes era is infuriatingly inevitable if you’re a fan of a rival team.  As long as Chris Jones and Travis Kelce still suit up, Mahomes has enough elite talent with him to ensure that the road to the Lombardi Trophy runs through Kansas City.

Los Angeles Chargers – Jim Harbaugh is not subtle.  Greg Roman is not subtle.  The strengths of this team are defined (though it’s not a wildly long list after Justin Herbert), as are the weaknesses.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – More good than great, and it isn’t a roster chock-full of especially eye-catching players.  But Baker was fun last year, Mike Evans is always a good time, and they may get bonus points if an interesting divisional race pops up.

LAWFUL EVIL – This is a train wreck that we can all see coming.  Or at least a really boring train trip that we can all see coming.

Carolina Panthers – I’m open to reconsidering their “lawfulness” if you think Bryce Young bounces back in a big way.  Offseason acquisitions aside, he’d still have to do virtually all the heavy lifting to get this team to anything like playoff contention, and I’m pessimistic about his ability to do that.

Denver Broncos – I guess Sean Payton can do his mad genius act?  This roster gets real weak, real fast, and the QB room is 3 quarters (maybe 3 dimes) instead of 1 dollar.

New Orleans Saints – Maybe the most competent of the wildly uninspiring teams, and maybe the most wildly uninspiring of the competent teams.  Maybe Chris Olave goes up a level?  Maybe Derek Carr is a little less Derek Carr-ish?

New York Giants – If Malik Nabers is OBJ 2.0… well, there would be at least 1 fun player to watch?  Andrew Thomas and Dexter Lawrence are excellent, but it’s hard to rely on line play to carry your watching experience.  We’re a bad month away from downgrading to Danny Nickels.

NEUTRAL GOOD – There are some questions about this team, but what we know about them seems pretty interesting.

Buffalo Bills – The new-look offense is an interesting change, plus Stefon Diggs is out of town, but if anything these move them away from the “don’t miss Josh Allen putting the team on his back” attack that has elevated them over the last couple years.  The defense is retooling, but as long as Allen is in town, we’ll know generally what we’re in for – and it’ll be pretty good!

Chicago Bears – There’s enough in place that chaotic feels a little strong for Year 1 of the Caleb Williams experience, but this is a pretty inexperienced team.  They’ve certainly made clear that they want to surround Williams with weapons on offense, and if the defense can maintain their improvements from late 2023, we’ve got an interesting wildcard race kind of team here.

Dallas Cowboys – If the front office had gotten some (seemingly no-brainer) extensions done already, this would be a firmly lawful-good team.  But we’re still a year away from UFA Dak, and in the meantime, he’ll elevate this team to one of the better ones in the NFC.  In the regular season, at least.

Houston Texans – CJ Stroud is a top __ QB in the NFL… if you fill that in with a number 5 or less, this might be a Super Bowl dark horse?  But it seems more likely that it’ll settle in as a strong conference championship game contender that is a year or two away from having the experience to make even bigger noise.

Indianapolis Colts – Maybe they’re a little more chaotic but I’m underrating that because they seem to be firmly in a “fine but not legit good” tier of teams.  Anthony Richardson could make big noise this year if he can stay healthy though, and Shane Steichen will cook up some pretty playcalls for him.

Miami Dolphins – Tyreek and a bunch more fast guys for Tua to throw to sounds great.  A moderate roster otherwise, plus real questions about this team’s playoff ceiling, ensure that there’s a level of uncertainty here, but in some regular season game in October, just enjoy a predictably delightful buffet of Mike McDaniel’s offensive goodness.

TRUE NEUTRAL – There are some questions here that may bring some intrigue, but it’s more moderate than it is compelling.

Arizona Cardinals – Getting a little sleeper buzz, and there are some fun pieces here, especially on offense with Kyler healthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. allowing Trey McBride to not be the only player to guard.  But this feels like more of the foundational stages of a playoff team than a truly formed contender in 2024 (& maybe 2025).

Pittsburgh Steelers – Russell Wilson vs. Justin Fields is wildly chaotic… and everything else feels extremely stable.  It’s starting to have been a while since this team was as dangerous as Steelers fans expect them to be on an annual basis.  This year may not change that, but it’s unlikely to be a disaster either.

Seattle Seahawks – Mike MacDonald’s 2023 excellence came in large part because he perfectly adapted to his existing roster’s strengths – which makes it a little hard to have a clear sense of what exactly will or won’t change in 2024.  There are nice pieces though, & Seattle should be fine.

NEUTRAL EVIL – There are some questions here that I’m not really interested enough to answer.

Las Vegas Raiders – Questions about the QB position loom largest, but there are also questions about the talent on both sides outside of a few stars like Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams.  But if 2023 provides a template, this will be a straightforward, run-committed team that will be more scrappy than dangerous.

New England Patriots – Drake Maye will be interesting to watch develop, but the rest of the offense is so talent-bare that it feels unlikely we’ll get many fireworks regardless.  There’s a quietly strong defense in place, so maybe Jerod Mayo gets rolling quickly?  (Probably not though.)

CHAOTIC GOOD – Get your popcorn, because this is going to be wild no matter how it turns out.

Atlanta Falcons – Kirk Cousins comes off an injury and a massive free agency contract.  There’s a new coach.  Michael Penix Jr. was picked 8th overall.  (Wait, what?)  Bijan Robinson may be ready to explode without Arthur Smith.  Does the football hipster hype around Drake London bear fruit?  Will this team be able to meet expectations – and what exactly are they?

New York Jets – The epitome of this category.  The Rodgers Show is chaos unto itself, but if he can stay healthy and just act kinda normal – oh yeah, and return to his MVP form – then this team could go really far.  If not, everyone is getting fired.

Philadelphia Eagles – A lot of talent, especially on offense, ensures that this is a fun team to watch – but the pressure of last year’s collapse and Sirianni’s hot seat means that they better stay that way or there will be consequences.  If even Howie Roseman is OK paying up for a RB like Saquon, you know it’s a talented player to add.  I think we’ll see more of the 2022 Eagles than the 2023 version, but if they crash, it’ll be a big one.

CHAOTIC NEUTRAL – The situation is more uncertain than it is unmissable, but maybe it ends up grabbing more attention.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Mega-millionaire Trevor Lawrence leads one of 2023’s most disappointing teams, and now in a division that has gone from “pretty terrible” to “arguably the most interesting in the NFL” in just over a year.  It’s hard to feel great about any position group on the roster, but the cupboards certainly aren’t bare either.

Minnesota Vikings – If JJ McCarthy can turn into a top-20 starter this season, then this team is right back to where they were with Kirk.  But I’d lower expectations from their QB room this season, whether that be Darnold or McCarthy, which means that by midseason you may just be paying attention to this team solely through the lens of your Justin Jefferson fantasy production.

Tennessee Titans – Tennessee has definitely acted like they want to build a contender around Will Levis… but the downside is that you have to build your contender around Will Levis.  Plenty of free agent spending means this team will have a say in the AFC South, but what exactly they’ll be could vary significantly.

Washington Commanders – They’re kinda like Minnesota, except without the megastar tier talent that Jefferson provides.  Daniels could be fun, but without enough of either side of the ball to feel like a real challenger, this is more about the franchise moving beyond the Dan Snyder era.

CHAOTIC EVIL – There’s a lot of volatility here that I’m just not going to touch.

Cleveland Browns – Is Deshaun Watson able to be a functional NFL QB and not a walking HR-and-salary cap headache?  Myles Garrett and Co. really great last year, but defense can be volatile year to year, and the last time we saw them they were being shredded by CJ Stroud.  Maybe it’s just AFC North rivalry, but this potential mess that I’m not enthused to watch… that also has a conference championship game in its range of outcomes.