predicting nfl’s biggest trades pt.2
Call Your Shot
We’ve begun answering one simple question.
In the next 4 years, which NFL player will be traded for the most?
We’re talking about current players, not picks or current college students. In order to answer the question, the player must actually be traded – we aren’t asking about Mahomes’ hypothetical trade value, but the value of someone who actually gets traded from their team to another one. And sure, trade packages are tough to value, but let’s just assume that we’re able to figure out which haul is the largest. When we hop out of the time machine in 4 years, who will have been traded for the most?
We started where this topic obviously has to begin – with the franchise QBs. You can go back and read that article if you like. Quarterback is the most valuable position in football, so it makes sense that the most valuable trade packages would be attached to quarterbacks.
But are there other options besides just running through a list of QBs to find the answer? After all, it’s immensely difficult for a team to feel comfortable trading away a star QB, because again, quarterbacks are the most valuable position in football.
For example, compare these lists. Here are players who have been traded in a package that involves at least one 1st round pick, or at least two picks in the first 3 rounds, since 2015. I’m not going to list out every 6th round pick swap or whatever, so sometimes “and more” fills in for late round picks or inconsequential players.
QBs:
Aaron Rodgers – from Green Bay to New York Jets, 04/24/23, for a 1st round swap (15 to 13), 2.41, and 2.42
Deshaun Watson – from Houston to Cleveland, 03/18/22, for 1.12, 1.13, 1.23, 3.73, and more
Russell Wilson – from Seattle to Denver, 03/16/22, for 1.05, 1.09, 2.37, 2.40, and more
Carson Wentz – from Indianapolis to Washington, 03/16/22, for a 2nd round swap (47 to 42), 3.73, and 3.79
Carson Wentz – from Philadelphia to Indianapolis, 02/18/21, for 1.16 and 3.84
Matthew Stafford – from Detroit to Los Angeles Rams, 01/30/21, for Jared Goff, 1.06, 1.32, and 3.101
Sam Bradford – from Philadelphia to Minnesota, 09/03/16, for 1.14 and more
WRs:
Hollywood Brown – from Baltimore to Arizona, 04/28/22, with 3.100 for 1.23
AJ Brown – from Tennessee to Philadelphia, 04/28/22, for 1.18 and 3.101
Tyreek Hill – from Kansas City to Miami, 03/23/22, for 1.29, 2.50, and more
Davante Adams – from Green Bay to Las Vegas, 03/17/22, for 1.22 and 2.53
Stefon Diggs – from Minnesota to Buffalo, 03/16/20, for 1.22 and more
Odell Beckham Jr. – from New York to Cleveland, 03/13/19, for 1.17 and more
Amari Cooper – from Oakland to Dallas, 10/22/18, for 1.27
Brandin Cooks – from New England to Los Angeles Rams, 04/03/18, for 1.23
Brandin Cooks – from New Orleans to New England, 03/10/17, for 1.32 and 3.103
Players like Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, etc. were traded, but did not receive a 1st or multiple 2nd/3rd s in exchange. DJ Moore was involved in the Panthers’ swap for the 1.01 that became Bryce Young, but given all the other draft capital that they gave up as well, it’s tough to value Moore. Many commentators treated him as a 1st round pick in that trade though, so I’ll mention him here.
And since we’re looking at other impact positions, here are the other trades that would qualify:
OL
Orlando Brown Jr. – from Baltimore to Kansas City, 04/23/21, with 2.58 for 1.31 and 3.94
Laremy Tunsil – from Miami to Houston, 08/31/19, for 1.03, 1.26, and 2.36
Defenders
Bradley Chubb – from Denver to Miami, 11/01/22, for 1.29
Von Miller – from Denver to Los Angeles Rams, 11/01/21, for 2.64 and 3.96
Jamal Adams – from New York Jets to Seattle, 07/25/20, for 1.10, 1.23, and 3.86
DeForest Bucker – from San Francisco to Indianapolis, 03/16/20, for 1.13
Jalen Ramsey – from Jacksonville to Los Angeles Rams, 10/15/19, for 1.20, 1.25, and more
Minkah Fitzpatrick – from Miami to Pittsburgh, 09/16/19, for 1.18
Frank Clark – from Seattle to Kansas City, 04/23/19, with 3.84, for 1.29, 2.64, and 3.92
Khalil Mack – from Oakland to Chicago, 09/01/18, with 2.43, for 1.24, 3.81, and more
Players like Jalen Ramsey (LAR to MIA), Roquan Smith (CHI to BAL), etc. were traded, but did not receive a 1st or multiple 2nd/3rd s in exchange.
Okay, that’s a lot of trades we just listed. What can we learn from them?
1. Star QBs aren’t all that likely to be traded…
There have only been 7 qualifying QB trades over the last decade, behind WRs and defenders.
2. But they can command the biggest packages.
Three QB trades have commanded packages with two 1sts plus more assets – Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford. Laremy Tunsil, Jamal Adams, and Jalen Ramsey also hit that benchmark … but their packages came in right around that ceiling, with the 2.36 the only additional top-80 piece in any of those non-QB deals (for Tunsil). Meanwhile, Watson received a THIRD 1st round pick, plus also a 3rd. Wilson earned two early 2nds as well. Stafford brought Goff and a 3rd back as well – Goff was viewed as a negative at the time due to his contract, but has obviously proven to be much more.
3. Star non-QBs have to be traded fairly young in order to rack up the biggest trade packages.
Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and Von Miller are some of the best players at their positions in their generations. We’ll see them in Canton. And yet none of them returned massive trade packages – fine ones, yes, but not absurd ones – because they played out their primes with one team and then moved too late to earn a return that could rival the best QBs. Among the non-QBs with the largest returns, Laremy Tunsil was 25, and Jamal Adams and Jalen Ramsey were 24.
Compare that to the QBs – Deshaun Watson was the youngest at 26, but had (has) serious and well-documented extenuating circumstances. Otherwise, Rodgers was 39, Wilson was 33, Stafford was 32, Bradford was 28 and with a serious injury history, and Wentz was 28 but visibly declining. QBs don’t get traded for big packages at their peak (again, Watson excepted), and non-QBs don’t get traded for big packages unless they’re at their peak.
Cool. Thanks for hanging in there. So who are we looking for? We want to find
Non-QBs
27 or younger (and ideally a couple years younger)
Who are either on struggling teams – for example, Tunsil’s Dolphins were 13-19 in the 2 seasons before moving him, Jamal Adams’ Jets were 11-21, Jalen Ramsey’s Jaguars were 15-17…
Or, especially for WRs, were on teams in serious transition – Tyreek Hill was moved because of Mahomes’ NFL-record contract, while Davante Adams and Odell Beckham Jr. were traded before the final season that their franchise QBs played with their career-long teams.
So let’s start listing names.
WR – This position feels the most volatile. Brandon Aiyuk has been in the news quite a lot recently, but it feels like if there was a franchise QB-rivaling package out there, he would have been moved instantaneously by the 49ers. I don’t think Tee Higgins or DK Metcalf or someone similar is good enough to get a true haul. So I think the 2 players who are real possibilities are:
CeeDee Lamb – Extremely successful so far, and would probably be in the top 5 at the position for most NFL analysts. Were Dak to move on, it may become more likely that Jerry Jones and Co. retain their other star talent… but it’s a volatile situation in Dallas, and Lamb would command a haul.
Garrett Wilson – Speaking of volatile situations, there is nowhere more volatile than the Jets. Will they win a Super Bowl? Will they flame out and get everyone fired? Everything seems to be on the table. Maybe there’s a world where flipping Wilson gives the Jets the ammunition to take on a post-Rodgers world in the event of a messy ending.
OL – This one is tough to see any real contenders who are young enough, good enough, and potentially available enough – Penei Sewell and Jordan Mailata are on successful teams whose OL is central to their identity, it sure seems like Jim Harbaugh (and by extension, Rashawn Slater) wants to get into that category. Tristan Wirfs is more likely to get extended with his rookie contract coming to a close soon.
So if I had to pick one name, I’d say
Andrew Thomas. The New York Giants are a terrible team without a ton of direction, and could probably use a hard reset. Thomas is already past his rookie contract, so his cap is a little more manageable, and the dead cap gets pretty manageable for NY in 2 years. And while Thomas may not be at the absolute apex of his position, he’s still very good.
Defenders – A couple good options here, but as we just saw with Brian Burns, it’s hard to get maximum trade value when the acquiring team is going to have to turn around and immediately give you a big contract. A couple great players who I’ll rule out for various reasons are a little too old (TJ Watt), or a little too inconsistent (the Jags’ Josh Allen), or a little too unlikely to be traded (Aidan Hutchinson, Trent McDuffie, Maxx Crosby), or a little too much the wrong position (Dexter Lawrence, Fred Warner, Antoine Winfield Jr., etc.). So who’s left?
Myles Garrett – Especially with the retirement of Aaron Donald, he’s probably the best defensive player in the NFL. I’d guess that Cleveland has to try to contend while they’re paying Watson so much anyway, and 28 might be slightly too old for this though.
Nick Bosa – Good enough, young enough, and SF has a lot of guys to pay so there may be a talent crunch that say, the Raiders won’t face with Maxx Crosby. But Purdy being so cheap for the moment, and all the buzz about their future plans for the WR room, means Bosa probably stays to help anchor their defense during the 49ers’ Super Bowl window.
And 4 rookie contract guys. Again, teams don’t pay as much in trades when they have to turn around and give out a massive contract… but if we’re talking long shot odds anyway, why not?
Micah Parsons – Parsons doesn’t feel like a player you move. He’s been top-3 in defensive player of the year voting in all 3 of his NFL seasons so far. But as was already mentioned with CeeDee Lamb – Dallas could go any number of directions. I think Parsons likes the Cowboys’ limelight and stays at the Star, but he probably has the highest trade value of any defensive player in the NFL.
Sauce Gardner – Hey look, another teammate in another volatile situation. I promise I’m not just trying to antagonize Cowboys & Jets fans. He’s been first-team All Pro in both of his seasons so far, but CB is a bit of an up-and-down position for virtually everyone since prime Darrelle Revis, so maybe he wouldn’t be viewed as the untouchable cornerstone that some WRs, OTs, or DEs are.
Patrick Surtain II – Another bad team, another excellent young CB. He’s a year further along in his contract than Sauce, and doesn’t have quite the accolades, but is viewed around the league as being as talented as any other CB. Denver needs talent to build around, but it may be a long road back and maybe stockpiling picks is the way to go.
Kyle Hamilton – The ultimate in new-age versatility, Hamilton was arguably the best player on the 2023 Ravens defense, which is saying something when you share the field with talents like Roquan Smith and Justin Madubuike. I think there’s some world where the Ravens face a little salary crunch, and it’s a little tough to value exactly what a safety brings to the table. At the same time, Hamilton brings a bit of everything to the table (his do-everything toolbox bumped him just ahead of Winfield Jr. into this list, but I’m open to reversing them), and that’s a valuable skill in the cutthroat world of modern NFL offenses.
But enough talk – let’s rank. I’ll place the non-QBs in order, before then giving you my top dozen across all positions. I’ll note one last time that this does have to balance overall trade value with likelihood of being traded, so while I’d pick Micah Parsons & Joe Burrow highest in a draft of these players, that isn’t quite the question.
Sauce Gardner
Andrew Thomas
Micah Parsons
CeeDee Lamb
Garrett Wilson
Patrick Surtain II
Nick Bosa
Myles Garrett
Kyle Hamilton
And all together now! “In the next 4 years, which NFL player will be traded for the most?”
Kyler Murray
Jalen Hurts
Justin Herbert
Sauce Gardner
Andrew Thomas
Micah Parsons
CeeDee Lamb
Tua Tagovailoa
Garrett Wilson
Patrick Surtain II
Brock Purdy
Trevor Lawrence
