Vibes Volatility Index
Coming up on two-thirds of the way through the NFL season, many teams have their stories for 2024, and short-term destinies beyond 2024, somewhat settled. In many ways, that means that the vibes around each team are becoming clearer as well. Obviously, the general sentiment around each team is dependent most of all on team performance, but preseason expectations factor in as well. So does starting/finishing momentum … it’s probably more painful to start strong but then fizzle than it is to have a late-season run that comes up short. And of course, the extracurricular noise around a season can have a big impact on how a team feels, even if the records and expectations are around the same. For example, Indianapolis was seen as a fringe playoff team in preseason, and they’re a fringe playoff team right now – but the Anthony Richardson situation has added a level of tension or “narrative” to their season that isn’t present with other teams in the middle like Seattle or the Rams.
Today I’m looking at which teams have the most potential for volatility over the remainder of the NFL season. This doesn’t mean the greatest overperformance (Vikings, Commanders, etc.) or underperformance (Cowboys, Jets, etc.) from preseason expectation, or even the greatest range of outcomes over the rest of the season (ex. the Broncos’ ending run of AFC competitors), but rather which teams could have the greatest swing between “wow, what a great year 2024 was” and “wow, what a terrible year 2024 was” over the next few months. Since there’s such a difference in goals, emphases, expectations, etc. depending on how a team’s season has gone so far, I’ll split the league into thirds and highlight 2 teams from each section.
CONTENDERS, REAL OR PRESUMED
Who qualifies? Every team with at least 7 wins – Lions, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Steelers, Vikings, Chargers, Packers, Texans, Ravens, and Commanders.
Whose vibes are very stable?
Even if the Chiefs come up short in their historic three-peat quest, they are who they are. What are you going to do, be disappointed when you have Patrick Mahomes?
The Lions probably postponed any real sadness into 2025 once Aidan Hutchinson went down; there’s a slight feel of “playing with house money” here that maybe disrespects the legitimacy of their Super Bowl aspirations (?) … but they feel pretty safe.
The Chargers are a rising team that’s ahead of schedule, and that’s just fine. This year is for Jim Harbaugh to fall in love with Justin Herbert – next year is for deep playoff run dreams.
The Packers still feel a little young to have any kind of grief about missing a Super Bowl window or anything. They’re good enough to make real noise, but if 2024 isn’t their year, they shouldn’t fall to pieces.
The Commanders are in Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era. Pressure will rise as it continues, but right now it’s all about laying the foundation for a yearly playoff contender.
So who’s left? The Bills, Eagles, Steelers, Vikings, Texans, and Ravens.
OK, who tops the Vibes Volatility Index from this group?
Baltimore Ravens –
Best-case scenario: Lamar wins his 3rd MVP, and the Ravens win the Super Bowl. Derrick Henry is a road-grading force of nature, and Todd Monken runs him through the Chiefs or Bills or whoever else stands in the Ravens’ way instead of getting too pass-happy. The defense stabilizes just enough to keep Lamar from having to be consistently perfect – and speaking of which, Lamar takes a big step forward in the consistency of his playoff performances. While there are significant questions around most units, there’s still meaningful talent even in some struggling units – Flowers and Bateman at WR, Hamilton, Madubuike, and Humphrey on defense, etc. – and everything comes together for this roster that’s knocked on the door but never broken through in the Lamar Jackson era.
Worst-case scenario: The Ravens lose the division to the hated Steelers, go on the road in the wildcard round (probably to Pittsburgh or Houston, two teams that feel at least a bit more beatable than the Bills or Chiefs) and lose a winnable game in frustrating fashion. They forget to run, and then forget how to catch passes, giving Lamar a stat line that will feed the critics all offseason long. And with players like Roquan Smith losing a step, much less starters like Patrick Queen on other (opposing) rosters, the defense just can’t piece it together long enough to hold its own against the elite QBs waiting in the AFC playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles –
Best case scenario: The Eagles’ top-level talent (arguably the best in the NFL) carries them all the way to a Super Bowl victory. Jalen Hurts could re-cement himself among the best QBs in the NFL, even if he’s half a tier down from Mahomes & Allen & other megastars. Saquon is leaping (backwards) into the OPOY race as one of the most dynamic weapons in the league, the defense is turning into a nasty unit, AJ Brown is a menace to guard, and there’s just a ton of hard-to-handle talent that Howie Roseman has brought to town. If anyone is going to challenge – and even defeat – the Lions juggernaut in the NFC, it feels like it’s Philly. And even if they come up a little short, feeling more like 2022 than second-half 2023 would still be a big win.
Worst-case scenario: Their current momentum is a bit of a false dawn, they get upset by a dangerous wildcard opponent, and Nick Sirianni gets fired. And even the fact that firing Sirianni is on the table makes this a fairly easy choice… there’s almost no way that any other head coach in this tier gets fired, barring a real shocker. The excellent rookie CBs might regress a little. Jalen Hurts might show his limitations as a franchise QB. The offensive depth might get exposed a little. This is a very good team right now – but it could get uglier here than it could for almost any other contender.
I passed on the Bills because the 2024 offseason was already their soft reset. Losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs again might be soul-destroying, but the moves have in large part been made already to enter the 2.0 version of the Josh Allen Era. The Steelers and Vikings are outkicking their coverage enough in preseason expectations that I doubt than even a one-and-done playoffs would be too disappointing, even if both teams would be hungry to get a win. The Houston Texans were probably the closest of any omitted team in any section, but while there might be frustration about a bad O-line and quiet disappointment that CJ Stroud is more “very nice franchise cornerstone” than “oh wow, the leap is here, bring on Mahomes”, I don’t think there’s anything that is trajectory-altering about the 2024 season for this franchise.
IN THE PLAYOFF HUNT
Who qualifies? Every team with 5 or 6 wins, plus a select few 4-win teams based on their potential playoff hopes – Cardinals, Falcons, Broncos, Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Colts among the 5 or 6 win teams, and then I’ll give the nod to the Dolphins with Tua back, Buccaneers with Evans returning & a very manageable schedule, and Bengals with the Burrow-Chase-Higgins-Hendrickson core. Apologies to the Bears & Saints for excluding them.
Whose vibes are very stable?
The Cardinals will probably see this season as enough of a success that I doubt there’s a huge range of emotions in 3 months. They probably aren’t a real Super Bowl team, the 49ers’ decline opened a window they might not have been expecting anyway, but I doubt everything crumbles either.
The Broncos are a more volatile outcome team – the final 4 games of the season against the Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs will be immensely interesting. But since we’re talking vibes, I think everything is & remains pretty positive in Bo Nix’s new home.
The Rams are who they are. They’re trying to squeeze a few last seasons out of Matthew Stafford, but post-Aaron Donald, they’re more frisky outsiders than true conference elites.
The Dolphins have taken a major hit to their vibes already, with 2024 looking more like a lost season & questions starting to be raised about the longterm future of the McDaniel-Tua-Tyreek build. But I don’t think that things get massively better or worse from this point forward in the season.
The Buccaneers have been on a bit of a roller coaster so far, as they started off surprisingly feisty (which is maybe our fault for underrating them; they did win a playoff game last season) until both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going down likely ended any real playoff upside. But with Evans returning, there’s a chance for a sneaky NFC South run, but probably nothing more.
So who’s left? The Falcons, Seahawks, 49ers, Colts, and Bengals.
OK, who tops the Vibes Volatility Index from this group?
San Francisco 49ers –
Best case scenario: They win the Super Bowl. I don’t think it’s happening, but they have the best chance of anyone in this range, especially when comparing their path to the playoffs from the muddled NFC West against a team like the Bengals’. And even if they don’t go all the way, a couple of playoff wins with Brock Purdy could help cement him as someone worth paying like a franchise player, instead of just Kyle Shanahan’s on-field avatar. There is plenty of talent here, and if McCaffrey knocks the rust off, Kittle comes back healthy, etc., this is still as brutal of an offense to face as any.
Worst case scenario: Injuries continue to mount, CMC never looks back to 100%, Purdy can’t definitively answer questions about his potential as a franchise QB, and the Niners miss the playoffs entirely after being viewed as one of the true inner-circle contenders in the preseason. Shanahan isn’t going anywhere, but with a lot of the stars on this roster either aging or dealing with injuries, plus the mental questions that come from losing in a Super Bowl twice, there’s at least the possibility that this team is an admittedly more successful version of the 2000s San Diego Chargers (hey, remember how fun they were, some good teams huh?) than the Peyton Manning Colts (took them a while to climb the mountain but they finally did it!).
Atlanta Falcons –
Best case scenario: Kirk Cousins takes the Falcons to the promised land, which considering Atlanta’s recent history, is just getting a playoff win. Or even a playoff appearance – their last time even making the dance was 2017. Winning a home playoff game in the wildcard round (quite possibly in a Cousins Bowl matchup against the Vikings?) and playing a conference elite close on the road would feel like a pretty good start to the Raheem Morris era, and would quiet some of the questions about franchise direction or cohesion after the Cousins contract / Penix draft pick conversations in the spring. I don’t think most NFL fans view this team as a major threat to the Lions, or even that next tier of Eagles, maybe Packers, etc., but any level of playoff success would be amazing.
Worst case scenario: This team could maybe, just maybe, miss the playoffs. They’re 1.5 games up on the Buccaneers and do have the tiebreaker, but the schedules look different between these two teams. Atlanta still has games vs. the Chargers, at the Vikings, and at the Commanders, and might not be favored in any of them. (To be fair, at Raiders / vs. Giants / vs. Panthers isn’t too bad. But in their last 3, they won by 6 against a bad Cowboys team, lost by 3 to a bad Saints team, & got throttled by an OK Denver team, so they don’t have tons of momentum.) The Bucs share the Giants / Panthers / Raiders / Chargers, but then get the Cowboys, Panthers again, & Saints in the final 3 weeks, when all of those teams may be fully in 2025 draft season. Unless the Falcons can get wins against fellow playoff contenders, the door is open for them to get caught – and given the strength of Minnesota and Green Bay in the NFC North, a wildcard berth might not be available for them either. To be clear, this discussion so far has been about results instead of about vibes volatility – but this is a team that was supposed to make some noise, and plays in the weakest division in their conference. The expectation better be a division title, and if they can’t make the playoffs at all, there might be a lot of questions about the QB position, highly-drafted offensive players, and overall direction of this team.
I passed on the Bengals because I think the damage is mostly done, and because they have a rock-solid QB situation that at least 25 other teams would trade places with. I passed on the Seahawks because I think they were always going to be more mediocre than either awesome or terrible this season. And I passed on the Colts because I think the Anthony Richardson Experience will take until 2025 to truly be decided in either direction, and a lot of the weirdness seems to be already out of the way.
MOCK DRAFT SZN
Who qualifies? Anyone with 3 or fewer wins, plus the 4-win teams mentioned earlier that I’m pessimistic about – Rounding down for Bears & Saints, plus then the Panthers, Cowboys, Jets, Patriots, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Giants, and Jaguars.
Whose vibes are very stable?
The Saints fell off hard after the first 2 weeks, but are who they are at this point. The Panthers are just enjoying any signs of life from Bryce Young as they embark on a multi-year rebuild. The Patriots are watching Drake Maye highlights and just about nothing else. The Jaguars are counting down the days until this very-bad-no-good season mercifully ends. Nothing the Jameis Winston Browns do really matters compared to the on-field and off-field questions about the Deshaun Watson Browns.
So who’s left? The Bears, Cowboys, Jets, Titans, Raiders, and Giants.
OK, who tops the Vibes Volatility Index from this group?
Chicago Bears –
Best case scenario: The Bears probably aren’t making any real playoff noise this season, after any optimism from a 4-2 start had Jayden Daniels deliver a dagger into its heart from 60 yards away… but that’s OK. Plenty of rookie QBs don’t make the playoffs in their first season. Caleb Williams just needs to make some noise under new OC Thomas Brown, with some excellent tests against playoff-level opposition coming up. If he can flash enough to remind everyone that he was seen as a comfortably better prospect than Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, then even a bumpy first season can be forgiven and optimism can reign in Chicago. Win enough to feel good about the progress being made, lose enough to clearly turn the page into a new, offense-first coach’s (Ben Johnson?) tenure in 2025.
Worst case scenario: The Bears lose all 7 of their remaining games – which is frighteningly possible, given that it’s Vikings, at Lions, at 49ers, at Vikings, Lions, Seahawks, at Packers from here on out. You want bad vibes? 11 straight losses can do that. The losses look more like getting stomped by the Cardinals or Patriots than the one-kick-away defeat to the Packers. Caleb underwhelms and starts showing scar tissue from playing behind a bad O-line on a frustrated team. Williams can’t become a bust in 2024 – rookies deserve time, and there’s a decent chance that the situation looks much cleaner next season. But if he looks worse than expected, who knows? The best offensive minds might start looking at other coaching openings, especially if a high-upside job like Cincinnati or Philadelphia shakes loose. Detroit and Green Bay don’t look like they’re going anywhere, and Minnesota is one of the success stories of the season, so the Bears might start wondering if they’ll languish at the bottom of the NFC North hierarchy for a while if there aren’t signs of hope in the next 2 months.
Dallas Cowboys –
Best case scenario: Sim to end. Is this Cooper Rush-led team making the playoffs? No. Just don’t get hurt, come back next year, upgrade your head coach, and reset.
Worst case scenario: Why are the Cowboys here if everyone knows that Cooper Rush hard-caps their 2024 ceiling? Because the vibes can always get worse in JerryWorld. There are 4 division matchups left to crush hope … just imagine if this team loses to Tommy DeVito on Thanksgiving. Or if Joe Burrow eviscerates the defense on Monday Night Football the next week. Or if they lose to the Bryce Young-led Panthers, who have already gotten one coach fired this year. Or if the Eagles run up the score on them in Philly. Or if Jerry continues his beef with the sun, or if gravity continues its beef with the stadium roof, or if any number of real-life-sitcom events decide to come to pass. Typically, I’d say that the damage is already done for a team who lost its QB to a season-ending injury… but the news cycle is never over for the Cowboys, and that means that there’s a greater degree of vibes volatility here than there usually would be for a 3-7 team praying for 2024 to mercifully end.
The Jets are Cowboys-adjacent for sure, but it feels like the damage has already been done with Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas losing their jobs and Aaron Rodgers seeming to have one foot out the door. The Titans were probably the closest to getting Dallas’s spot in this ranking – they really wanted to get to 9-8 this year and sneak into the playoffs, but everything has gone off the rails. And the Raiders and Giants feel like there’s neither any real hope of turning things around in 2024, nor any real room to get worse, so they both are what they are.
