Staying Alive
The NFL Awards Races Halftime Check-in
We’re halfway through the NFL season, so we’re starting to get a clear picture of what to expect from 2024. The Dallas Cowboys will let their fans down again, which will be extra tough for them given that the Yankees lost in the World Series and Alabama isn’t rolling as much as usual. The Baltimore Ravens are legitimate contenders again, and just tried to solve their Achilles heel of receivers with the dropsies by acquiring Diontae Johnson, which couldn’t possibly let them down. The Detroit Lions want to punch teams in the face with their running game, Derek Carr didn’t sustain MVP-level play more than 2 weeks, and all the sorts of things that you’d expect anyway. But there have also been plenty of real surprises as well, with the most surprising of them being Jayden Daniels making Washington a trade deadline buyer by bringing hope to DC for the first time since RG3’s injury.
But halfway through the NFL season is about enough time to start getting a sense of how the individual awards races will shape up over the back half. It’s almost impossible to say for sure – injuries can obviously swing things significantly, and someone can put up a historic run over the last 2 months and fight right back into the mix. Generally speaking, though, if you aren’t particularly close at the halfway point, then there’s going to be too much ground to make up to catch and surpass everyone ahead of you.
So who is still in the mix for each of the major awards? I’m going to try to figure out who could plausibly be holding some hardware at the end of the season – and by extension, who can’t make up enough ground to get there. I’m going to look at the top 10 according to FanDuel’s odds for each award, and split them into categories based on how I see things. This won’t always align with the betting odds, isn’t intended to be a betting recommendation, etc. … this is just me talking things through.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Favorite(s): Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
In the conversation: Jared Goff
Not ruling them out yet: Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels
They’re out, honorable mention division: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold
Not in the top-10 but don’t forget about: Derrick Henry
Allen is the current favorite, but I’d see Lamar leading at this point of the season. (Full disclosure: I am a Ravens fan, but this honestly is objective.) He’s had a crazy season passing, and the Ravens’ A-game is arguably – arguably – the best in the league. We do not speak of the Raiders game. But Allen is incredible, an absolute force of nature who’s carrying a team without true offensive superstars, and if it’s just about dead even at the end of the season, he might get some support over a Lamar repeat.
Goff doesn’t have to have crazy output to still be doing an excellent job piloting the Lions battleship, and if they end up 15-2 or something like that, I think he’ll be right in it. Burrow can go nuclear, & clearly is carrying Cincy this year instead of only benefiting from his excellent WRs. I’d fade Daniels, since I think in a close race voters would give him ROY & someone else MVP, but he’s obviously been transformative for Washington.
Mahomes currently has the third best odds, but I don’t see the path for him on a Kansas City team that is grinding teams down much more than blowing them out. His TD-INT stats aren’t great, and unless we see Hopkins absolutely revitalize this passing game, I think he’ll be one of the less MVP-votes-gathering QBs of a 16-1 or so team that we might have seen. The rest of the top 10 are mostly good-but-not-great QBs, and barring a flaming hot end of the season in Atlanta, I don’t see any of these guys transcending a narrative that they relied on their premier skill position talent.
Honestly, I’m surprised that Derrick Henry is currently tied for 12th in MVP odds at 45-1 … yes, I know. MVP is a QB award these days. And even if Henry goes nuts over the back half of the year, he’ll probably split votes with Lamar as voters seek to assign credit for any success there. But he’s tracking right around 2,000 rushing yards, has looked phenomenal, and has been integral in unlocking another level to Todd Monken’s offense. He’s a long shot, but I think he’s closer to the Purdy/Darnold combo at 28-1 (and maybe ahead of them) than a significant step behind them.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Favorite(s): Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley
In the conversation: Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase
Not ruling them out yet: Lamar Jackson, Kyren Williams
They’re out, honorable mention division: CeeDee Lamb, Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs
Not in the top-10 but don’t forget about: Joe Burrow
Derrick Henry is the odds-on favorite here, which is a testament to all of the dominance that I just mentioned in the MVP section. Saquon Barkley is strongly in the mix though, and especially if he heats up against a manageable second half schedule, will be very much in voters’ thoughts. And he’s already gotten the highlight reel moment of the year (decade?) with his absurd, outrageous, this-man-is-an-alien reverse-hurdle of a Jaguars defender. Honestly, it might be the Jaguars’ highlight of the season.
I think Allen is a little about Lamar for this award, because I think that’s reversed for the MVP, but I don’t think we need to hash that out more, especially as OPOY leans towards non-QBs. Jefferson has been a huge part of rocketing the Vikings up the NFC standings, but if they stumble against a tough schedule, he might end up slightly penalized by being such a monster every year that 2024 may not uniquely stand out. Chase could move up if the Bengals go on a run to make the playoffs as the annual “team nobody wants to face”. (I’m writing this before the TNF Ravens-Bengals game, so if he repeats his performance from our first meeting this season, I might even bump him towards the top of this section.)
Kyren probably gets overshadowed by the rest of the offensive talent in LA, but he’s a reliable producer and has been healthier than someone like Kupp within the 2024 Rams ecosystem. I think CeeDee is done if Dak misses any real time, and Gibbs and Jacobs might have a hard time transcending their talented teammates. Arguably, that’s the same deal that Kyren faces anyway, so I don’t have massive feelings about who goes where.
Burrow is the one guy that I think the odds are too low on… yes, OPOY leans non-QB, and so if Cincy goes nuclear, that might increase Chase’s odds more than his own. I just think he’s clearly the sun of the Bengals’ solar system, with Chase and Higgins and everyone else orbiting around his brilliance, so it’s not a terrible longshot.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Favorite(s): TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson
In the conversation: Chris Jones, Dexter Lawrence
Not ruling them out yet: Fred Warner, Will Anderson, Nick Bosa, Patrick Surtain, Xavier McKinney
They’re out, honorable mention division: Myles Garrett
Not in the top-10 but don’t forget about: Brian Branch, Will McDonald, and while he’s obviously not going to win it due to injury, I want to at least shout out Aidan Hutchinson because he’s a beast
To be clear, TJ Watt is currently at -135 (about a 57% implied chance of winning), while the next closest contender, Chris Jones, is currently at +1000 (about a 9% chance). So the odds see this one as wrapped up. Watt is obviously a game-wrecker who is one of the few defenders that can swing a game single-handedly. I just think that he’s receiving a little too much juice right now, and that Hendrickson is being slightly overlooked, as he’s leading the league in sacks and QB hits, and tied for the lead in TFLs. It’s fair to put Watt in his own tier though when considering his fumble-causing impact and the extreme gameplan attention that offenses are giving him.
Chris Jones and Dexter Lawrence are elite interior DL forces, but that’s a hard position to stand out in. Between KC’s excellent run D, and Lawrence’s strong sack totals, both are performing well for the moment, but might slide back.
San Fran hasn’t had the fearsome defense this year that they’ve had in the past, but it’s still talented and either Warner or Bosa could rise. The others in this tier are very strong players on solid playoff teams, but they feel like they’d need to ascend to another level – or in McKinney’s case, somehow maintain the wild pace of interceptions – in order to really force themselves into the conversation. And Myles Garrett is incredible, but he’s been better other seasons and Cleveland is just a mess in general – it doesn’t feel like this is his year.
I’d keep an eye on Brian Branch in particular if the Lions defense can stay strong even without Hutchinson, who would have arguably been the favorite for this award until his injury. But DBs can have a hard time winning this award, so he needs a strong team record plus some statistical variance to go his way.
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Favorite(s): Jayden Daniels
In the conversation: I don’t think anyone is especially close to Daniels if he stays healthy? But I’ll tier out the next section.
Not ruling them out yet, non-QBs: Brock Bowers, Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers
Not ruling them out yet, non-QBs: Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye
They’re out, honorable mention division: Marvin Harrison Jr., Isaac Guerendo (I’m assuming this is just a “what if every other SF RB stays hurt?” bet), Tyrone Tracy, Ladd McConkey
It’s Jayden Daniels. Statistical impact, team impact, franchise impact, you name it.
That said, Brock Bowers has been amazing – he’s arguably already the best receiving TE in the league, or at the very least in the conversation with load-managed Travis Kelce and stacked-offense George Kittle. Thomas Jr. and Nabers have been excellent as well, but QB questions and Nabers’ concussion earlier in the year kept either of them from making a charge (and again, Daniels is amazing).
Among the rookie QBs, non-Daniels-division, Bo Nix has been lowkey solid in guiding Denver to playoff contention. He may or may not have the potential heights that Williams or Maye have, but he’s clearly a competent and effective NFL QB more often than not, which Denver has to feel good about. Maye might have been in this race if he hadn’t sat for a while & didn’t have a disastrous offensive environment; he’s been pretty sharp. And Williams is working through some growing pains, but I’m a long-term believer. He’s just not a 2024 ROY insider.
The others are just guys who have played well, plus Vegas covering themselves for injuries – but none of them are likely to make a ton of noise here. Marv might be the one – highest pedigree and draft capital, plus a manageable second half schedule – but even then he’s at 60-1 at the moment because, again, Daniels.
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Favorite(s): Jared Verse
In the conversation: Who really has DROY conversations halfway through the season? … This is a really narrative-based award, and it doesn’t feel like anyone ealse is doing much in terms of generating one, beyond Verse starting strong.
Not ruling them out yet: Quinyon Mitchell, Braden Fiske, Tyler Nubin, Mike Sainristil
They’re out, honorable mention division: I’m not going to try to list out everyone who might be on the fringes of this one, mostly because I hate that one guy on your team specifically.
I’m not seeing the odds for this one, so hey, bask in the one ray of light that an FSU fan gets this year. Jared Verse has been very nice in LA, and for that matter, so has college-teammate-turned-NFL-teammate Braden Fiske. Mitchell has the most potential pop if he ascends over the second half of the season.
COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Favorite(s): Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow
In the conversation: JK Dobbins
Not ruling them out yet: I don’t think anyone especially fits here… maaaaaaybe Kyler?
They’re out, honorable mention division: Damar Hamlin, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Nick Chubb, Justin Herbert, Tank Dell, Sam Darnold
I think this is a three-horse race, after Aaron Rodgers did enough Aaron Rodgers things in New York to tint the 2024 perception of his impact. Credit to Dobbins for thriving in the Harbuagh-Roman run game in LA, but with Herbert throwing more and more over the past few weeks, I think this comes down to Cousins & Burrow. I’d agree with the Vegas odds (-140, or about 58%) that Kirk is the leader here, but you’ve already heard my Burrow optimism a couple times, just copy and paste that here as well. I won’t walk through everyone in the honorable mention tier, but I think that these guys will either be seen as having relatively standard injuries that don’t give enough of a buzzy narrative (ex. Justin Herbert), or won’t have the statistical or team impact to quite get them there (ex. Nick Chubb).
COACH OF THE YEAR
Not a players’ award, but hey, why not give these guys some love too?
Favorite(s): Dan Campbell, Dan Quinn
In the conversation: Andy Reid, Mike Tomlin, Kevin O’Connell, Matt LaFleur
Not ruling them out yet: Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh, Raheem Morris, Jonathan Gannon
They’re out, honorable mention division: This award relies enough on wins, division titles, and playoff seeding that it’s way too early to call it or eliminate anyone at this point of the season.
Not in the top-10 but don’t forget about: Sean McVay
Campbell is only 5th in the current odds, but man, it’s hard not to credit his work in turning Detroit into arguably the best team in the league. That said, in a battle of the Dan’s, Quinn’s work in Washington has earned him a clear current lead. Given that COY often goes to more of a surprising turnaround than it does an improved contender, that makes sense – but don’t forget about Campbell.
Reid is indisputably one of the best NFL coaches of his era – arguably the greatest active coach, especially with Belichick and Carroll off the sidelines – but it feels like KC might have to go 17-0 for him to make this happen. Tomlin might already be too established to get 2024-specific buzz, though winning a tough division is on the table. O’Connell and LaFleur also feel a little overlooked, but it’d probably take a division win (that at this point, looks slightly unlikely?) for them to really assert themselves here.
Payton has done solid work in Denver, but if they cap out as a 9-win 7-seed, will he be viewed quite as favorably as coaches of more successful teams, even if he had less to work with? Harbaugh has turned the Chargers’ overall direction around, but he inherited Herbert and almost certainly isn’t catching KC in the division. Morris might win a weak division, and Gannon might win a weird division, but they’d need strong second half runs to solidify their teams as legitimately scary instead of just big fish in small ponds.
McVay is 11th in the current odds, so he isn’t some deep wildcard, but there’s also quite a gap between LaFleur and Gannon tied for 9th at 16-1, and McVay in 11th at 33-1. The Rams could absolutely get hot and win the division, and if the defense can hold up despite losing Aaron Donald, I think McVay should get some overall-coaching credit in addition to his unquestioned offensive designed acumen.
